Stephen Wagner|Las Cruces Sun-News
LAS VEGAS – Abilene Christian has a gift – the gift of having nothing to lose.
And Saturday night at 7 p.m., in a game televised nationally on ESPNU, the Wildcats will have the chance to knock off top-seeded New Mexico State to advance to the NCAA Tournament.
ACU’s 78-76 upset win over second-seeded Seattle puts NMSU in somewhat of a worst-case scenario as far as Western Athletic Conference Tournament matchups are concerned. Yes, the Aggies undoubtedly have the most talent in the conference, are the best team in the WAC with the most impressive regular-season resume and should have more than enough firepower to knock out a No. 6 seed playing its fourth game in four days. But ACU has blown through the conference tournament and shocked two higher seeds by sticking with the relentless, aggressive, no-holds-barred style of play that has sent the Wildcats to the last two NCAA Tournaments.
And this tournament, after finishing just above the middle of the pack in the conference’s final regular-season standings, the Wildcats have played with nothing to lose. After all, few outside of ACU’s locker room expected them to make it this far.
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ACU has forced 19, 22 and 21 turnovers in its last three contests despite giving up at least 70 points in two of the games in part by leaning on the frenetic pace of play that has helped it win 12 of its last 14 games. The Wildcats rank in the top 40 nationally in adjusted tempo, per Kenpom, and are one of the top 60 teams in the country in average offensive possession length, but rank among the bottom 10 teams in the nation in free-throw attempts and field-goal attempts allowed.
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ACU is a team built on all or nothing —either forcing a turnover, or allowing a team to escape its relentless pressure and having a quality shot attempt. And while it’s a style of play the Aggies should be able to escape from Saturday night, it’s a high-risk high-reward strategy that poses a threat to favorites and caters toward the underdog. Just ask Texas about the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament.
If NMSU wins tomorrow, the Wildcats will have lost nothing. ACU will have strung together a 22-win season in what some viewed as a rebuilding year and advanced to the conference tournament championship game in its first year in a new league. The Aggies will have met the championship expectations in one more season and lived up to the standard head coach Chris Jans has set since he arrived in 2017.
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If NMSU loses tomorrow, heads will be scratched and strategies will be evaluated in Las Cruces. Different internal questions will be raised about what possibly could have been done differently in recruiting, in game-planning, in team chemistry-building to evaluate why the Aggies fell short of the Big Dance for the second straight year. Granted, qualifying for March Madness last season was a near-impossible task given the obstacles NMSU had to overcome, but the Aggies haven’t missed consecutive NCAA Tournaments in more than a decade.
However, both coaches have made it clear they want and expect to win Saturday’s game. ACU head coach Brette Tanner’s expectations for the program he inherited from Joe Golding haven’t changed just because the Wildcats are in a new conference, less talented than their last two NCAA Tournament teams and are a No. 6 seed. He left zero doubt in his postgame press conference after ACU’s win over Seattle that he expects his team to compete with the same ferociousness that got them to this point.
NMSU should be fine so long as it comes out with the same hyper-aggressiveness it exhibited against Grand Canyon Friday night. But the Aggies still have one more obstacle to clear to return to March Madness —one that hasn’t budged since it arrived in Las Vegas.
New Mexico State (25-6, 14-4) vs.Abilene Christian (23-9, 11-7)
When: Saturday, March 12, 7p.m. PST
Where:Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
TV:ESPNU
Online:https://www.espn.com/espnplus/
Radio:Zia Country 99.5 FM
Stephen Wagner is a sports reporter for the Las Cruces Sun-News. He can found on Twitter at @stephenwag22 andreached at SWagner@lcsun-news.com.
